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| Week 15: Lancaster's Locks |
| Jimmy Lancaster |
| December 14, 2007 |
Lancaster Playoff Payoff
After a nice 3-1 last week, the Lancaster likes seven games this week, five of which are all upsets. With what I deem as a reasonable money line option for them all, Ive narrowed that part of my weekly plan down to one.
Buffalo Money +5.5: Buffalo back-up safety George Wilson is out with a few broken ribs. Linebacker Peek seems iffy for Cleveland, putting McGinest in a position to play more snaps, and at his age, this could mean success on the outside for both Lynch and Jackson. The Broncos and some others will be rooting hard for the Bills here too. They may not pull it off, but I think they can keep it within the allocated number.
Washington Money Line: The Skins game vs. Minny was moved to primetime next week. What more of a clue do you need? The Giants stole one on the road from the Redskins earlier this year, and although I am not a huge fan of Todd Collins, this one could surprise. Why are the Giants only favored by 4.5 at home against a team they beat by 7 on the road? Its also a huge game for Washington, not only because they play Minnesota next week in a game that could decide one of the wildcards, but because their division record (second tiebreaker) is only 103, and since they do not play New Orleans this season, with the Saints 3-3 in the NFC South, they absolutely need win to have any chance if they cant win at Minnesota. They play Dallas at home the final week, so a win here could give them a chance. Santana Moss could come up nice here.
Philadelphia +10: I almost picked the Eagles to win outright, but with Green Bay poised to win again this week, Dallas has pressure to keep rolling towards home field advantage. Philly is done, and are playing with nothing to lose. It would be perfect for the Eagles fans to win this one on the road getting so many. Philly lost by 21 last time at home, so again, why is the line only 10? Donovan, who threw two INTs in week 9, should be much better this week. Watch Reggie Brown, who despite a disappointing year, has been utilized when healthy; and it seems his shin is fine.
Detroit +11: I like the inter-conference team on the road, in a Fox-televised game. Kitna should be able to sling it around against San Diegos defense, after they establish the run with Kevin Jones with DE Luis Castillo, DT Jamal Williams and Shawn Merriman hurting, if they even go at all. San Diego has capable back-ups, but the possibility of 30-year-old Carlos Polk playing that many down if Merriman is limited is frightening. Plus, Detroit is on their last playoff legs, with the Vikes, Saints, Cards and Redskins all and should give it all they have. The Lions are behind on tiebreakers to the Vikings, Redskins, Saints and Cardinals.
Over 43 in Cincinnati/San Francisco: The 49ers are banged up in their secondary with Hudson, Spenser and Harris all hurting. Cincy should give up their share as well. With algorithm numbers putting this one closer to 38 total points, it seems this is scheduled to go over. Chris Henry may make up for some poor performances over the past three.
New Orleans -3.5 (buying a point): The Saints are set up fine to get into the postseason, but they need a win here at home to solidify the tiebreaker against the Cardinals, who have two very winnable games to finish the season in Atlanta and Saint Louis. Kornheiser posed an appropriate question when he asked on Monday how this team has lost 7 games. Part of this, I actually think, was Reggie Bush, who is very Barry Sanders in short yardage. But with Bush out, the Sains can just throw the ball from the spread and run it up the gut with more a physical runner like Stecker.
This weeks fantasy sleeper is Donovan McNabb. Most cheat sheets have him a high to mid-end #2 for this week, but I expect him to get some big chunks against Dallas, perhaps in catch-up mode.
Last Week: 3-1-0
Season: 23-27-1
Fantasy Sleeper: Steve Smith had 6 catches for 44 yards.
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