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| Week 14: Lancaster's Locks |
| Jimmy Lancaster |
| December 7, 2007 |
The Lancaster Playoffs
Thursday night started the fantasy playoffs for many leagues, so here is the Lancaster to play the role of Mickey in Rocky: Im like that angel on your shoulder. Yes, the Lancaster, serving to guide you in the right direction when youre not sure who to start. It has always been my philosophy that when you are not sure in fantasy football, evaluate the gambling angle, hence this sites area titled Gamblers Edge; thats exactly what it means.
After going 2-2 last week (the Rams/Saints went over on a painful and meaningless S-Jax TD as the clock ticked down), the Lancaster remains quite confident. He hopes some of you took his advice on Fred Jackson, who had a great game (82 yards rushing and four catches for 69 yards), and figures to be in the Bills plans for the remainder of the season with a hobbled Lynch and curbed A-Train. Jackson had a productive pre-season and is a dynamic and powerful runner, despite his humble college past.
This week Im taking four games, and using the theme of the teams last meeting as the base of my algorithm:
Buffalo (-7): Buffalo is pretty solid guys, but beating Miami by three last time on the road isnt that impressive right? Then why are they favored by 7 this time around at home. Angelo Crowell is having a great season, when Buffalos linebackers appeared dead; their run defense has been much improved from early on. Right now they stand 20th against the run, and held Clinton Portis to a two-yard-per-carry average last week on the road. Watch LT Peters hip injury though; he should be able to go but if limited, the Bills have a veteran back up in the sizeable Kirk Chambers.
Seattle (-7): Favored by 7 at home, this means something to the Lancaster. Seattles defense will tee off on Warner if the Hawks get out to a two-score lead. Seattle is also much healthier than Arizona right now. I suspect the Cards will put up a fight and maybe even grab the wildcard this year, but this is a tough in-division game on the road. Even if Boldin plays with his compensatory injury, he has been ineffective at running deep routes; and with Fitz hurting too, look for former first round pick Bryant Johnson on the waiver wire. Some people are balking at him because of his bust history, Seattles good pass defense and the forthcoming news on Fitz and Boldin, so he might still be available.
Kansas City (buying a half at +7): Kansas City was outplayed by 16 in Week 10 at home, so why are the Broncs only giving 6.5 at home. To make sure, the Lancaster recommends buying a half to make it 7. The Chiefs were leaning on Priest for his first full day of work in two-years that Sunday, and ended up turning it over 4 times. This week I expect them to come out in desperation mode. Herm is good for two surprise wins every year, and with the first one at San Diego, this could be #2. Donnie Edwards should with a tender hammy, but why dont the Chiefs look to Kendrell Bell for some role? Whatever happened to that guy? Hes only 27, was a publicized free agent pick-up three years ago, and hasnt even played the last three games. Brandon Stokley, the increasingly productive slot man for Denver that Shanahan called the best hes ever seen in that position, is hurting with a knee, but should see the field. This one will be fun to watch too, with possible snow and temps at Mile High dropping into the low teens by the second half.
And finally, Lancaster is taking a three-team teaser using 8 points each game, with GreenBay (-2.5), the Over 51.5 (42.5) in Lions and Cowboys, and the Jets (+11.5).
The Pack should be able to knock off the Raiders in the cold, even if Brett is hurting. Therefore, Ryan Grant is close to a top five back this week. What a story-line with this Jon Kitna/Bradie James/Terrance Newman feud. Either way, theyre in Detroit on the fast track, so theres gong to be some points. And the Jets may be one of those teams that gets warm down the stretch, despite the terrible year. I love L. Coles quick strike chances this week.
Notes: I like Drew Bennett, especially if Bulger goes (despite having a setback Friday), mostly because the Bengals are 26th against the pass, but also because D. ONeal has a lingering knee injury; look for the Raiders to attack the Packers run defense up the gut, with injuries to DTs Corey Williams (probably, back) and J. Jolly (out, shoulder, missing his third game). With Heyward out for Jacksonville, Brent Hawkins may be a decent pass rusher (1.5 sacks this season in spot duty) but at 250 he is way undersized for a DE- this favors a fading Carolina offense and will give Steve Smith more time to get open. Therefore, my sleeper of the week is, yes, sleeper, Steve Smith!
Last Week: 2-2-0
Season: 20-26-1
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